Steel mill prices rose 27.6% in the year to September 2026, the largest gain since May 2022

Fri, 23 Oct 2026 09:09:59 -0400

The Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price index for steel mill products rose 2.2% in September 2026 to 388.580, its highest reading since July 2022. A producer price index tracks the prices U.S. producers receive for what they sell, here the sheet, plate, bar, pipe and wire that U.S. steel mills ship. The index stood 27.6% above September 2025, its largest gain on the year since May 2022. BLS published the September figure on October 15, and it is preliminary.

September was the tenth monthly gain in a row, starting in December 2025. That is the longest run since the 16 months of increases from September 2020 to December 2021, which ended at the series record of 449.711. The index is now 13.6% below that record and 33.3% above November 2025.

The index for iron and steel scrap, which electric arc furnaces melt into new steel, fell 0.3% in September to 580.952, its third monthly decline, and is 5.5% below its March 2026 high of 614.795. Over the same six months the mill products index rose 17.3%.

Steel mill prices rose for a tenth month in September 2026 while scrap fell

Producer price indexes, steel mill products (WPU1017) and iron and steel scrap (WPU1012), both 1982=100, not seasonally adjusted, monthly since September 2016

Steel mill products
Iron and steel scrap

June through September 2026 are preliminary. Scrap prices swing more than mill prices from month to month. Source: fred.stlouisfed.org

The largest monthly gain in the run came in December 2025, at 7.15%. Since then the index has risen between 0.95% and 4.03% each month.

Producer Price Index, steel mill products, the last 13 months. June through September 2026 are preliminary.
Month	Index (1982=100)	Change on month (%)	Change on year (%)
2025-09	304.579	-1.36	12.4%
2025-10	300.665	-1.29	10.0%
2025-11	291.556	-3.03	4.7%
2025-12	312.410	7.15	17.2%
2026-01	315.369	0.95	20.6%
2026-02	325.105	3.09	20.9%
2026-03	331.357	1.92	15.3%
2026-04	341.570	3.08	12.4%
2026-05	349.997	2.47	7.1%
2026-06	359.958	2.85	16.4%
2026-07	374.462	4.03	22.6%
2026-08	380.348	1.57	23.2%
2026-09	388.580	2.16	27.6%

Source: fred.stlouisfed.org

Sheet led the products

The gain was widest in flat steel. Cold rolled sheet and strip, the thin, smooth sheet used for appliance panels, enclosures and ductwork, rose 4.9% in September to 492.454 after rising 5.1% in August. It has risen for 11 months in a row, its longest run since the 13 months that ended in November 2021, and it is 36.9% above September 2025. Even so, it sits 30.8% below its November 2021 record of 711.611.

Hot rolled bars, plate and structural shapes, the index that covers rebar, plate and beams, rose 3.0% to 319.693 and is 15.0% above a year earlier. It is the highest since September 2022 and 6.2% below its June 2022 record.
Steel pipe and tube rose 0.6% and is 13.2% above a year earlier.
Steel wire rose 1.1% and is up 4.5% on the year, the smallest gain on the year among the carbon steel products.
Cold finished bars fell 0.2%, the only steel mill product in the group to decline in September.
Stainless pipe and tube rose 0.2% and is 7.7% above September 2025.

Producer price indexes for steel products and scrap, September 2025, August 2026 and September 2026. Each index has its own base period. 2026 values are preliminary.
Index	Series	Base	September 2025	August 2026	September 2026	Change on month (%)	Change on year (%)
Steel mill products	WPU1017	1982=100	304.579	380.348	388.580	2.2%	27.6%
Cold rolled sheet and strip	WPU101707	Jun 1982=100	359.641	469.251	492.454	4.9%	36.9%
Hot rolled bars plate and structural shapes	WPU101704	Jun 1982=100	277.952	310.493	319.693	3.0%	15.0%
Steel pipe and tube	WPU101706	Jun 1982=100	381.298	429.050	431.717	0.6%	13.2%
Stainless pipe and tube	WPU10170674	Dec 2010=100	143.246	153.947	154.210	0.2%	7.7%
Steel wire	WPU101705	Jun 1982=100	374.422	386.976	391.099	1.1%	4.5%
Semifinished steel mill products	WPU101702	Jun 1982=100	368.880	398.807	399.420	0.2%	8.3%
Cold finished steel bars and bar shapes	WPU101708	Jun 1982=100	262.216	278.001	277.314	-0.2%	5.8%
Fabricated structural metal	WPU107	1982=100	389.391	414.132	418.262	1.0%	7.4%
Iron and steel scrap	WPU1012	1982=100	527.241	582.967	580.952	-0.3%	10.2%

Source: fred.stlouisfed.org

Rebased to September 2024, cold rolled sheet rose 47.6% in two years and the mill products index 43.4%, while scrap rose 12.5%.

Cold rolled sheet rose 47.6% in two years, scrap 12.5%

Producer price indexes rebased so that September 2024 = 100, not seasonally adjusted, monthly. Same scale on every panel.

Cold rolled sheet and strip (Sep 2024=100)

Steel mill products (Sep 2024=100)

Hot rolled bars plate and shapes (Sep 2024=100)

Source: fred.stlouisfed.org

Fabricated structural metal set a record

The index for fabricated structural metal products rose 1.0% in September to 418.262, the highest in a series that begins in January 1947. By the BLS commodity codes, the group includes structural, architectural and pre-engineered metal products, sheet metal products, metal tanks, and metal doors and trim. It has risen for 21 months in a row, starting in January 2025, the longest run since the 34 months of increases that ended in November 1995. Its gain on the year, 7.4%, is about a quarter of the mill index’s 27.6%.

The tariff behind the year

Both months in this comparison fall under a 50% tariff on imported steel. Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 lets the president adjust imports that threaten national security. Proclamation 10947 raised the Section 232 duty on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50% for goods entered on or after June 4, 2025. Proclamation 11021 changed the regime from April 6, 2026, applying the duty to the full customs value of steel articles and their derivatives regardless of metal content, at 50% for steel articles and 25% for UK steel melted and poured in the United Kingdom. Proclamation 11032 set lower rates from June 8, 2026 through December 31, 2027 on a list of derivative products that includes mobile industrial equipment, and moved the threshold for counting a product as made entirely of U.S. metal from 95% to 85%. The price indexes do not separate the effect of a duty from other causes.

Revisions to July and August

The October 15 release revised the four months before September, mostly downward and by small amounts. Steel mill products for August went from 381.162 to 380.348, down 0.21%. The largest revision in the group was to hot rolled bars, plate and shapes for August, down 0.63% to 310.493, which turned August into a small decline for that index. Cold rolled sheet was unchanged.

July and August 2026 index values as published before and after the October 15, 2026 release. All values are preliminary.
Index	Month	Before October 15	October 15 release	Revision (%)
Steel mill products	2026-07	374.793	374.462	0.09
Steel mill products	2026-08	381.162	380.348	-0.21
Hot rolled bars plate and structural shapes	2026-07	312.161	311.507	-0.21
Hot rolled bars plate and structural shapes	2026-08	312.467	310.493	-0.63
Cold rolled sheet and strip	2026-07	446.617	446.617	0.00
Cold rolled sheet and strip	2026-08	469.251	469.251	0.00
Iron and steel scrap	2026-07	589.583	589.770	0.03
Iron and steel scrap	2026-08	580.548	582.967	0.42

Source: alfred.stlouisfed.org

What this means for a steel quote

Index an escalation clause to the product you buy. A shop that buys sheet would name “Producer Price Index for cold rolled steel sheet and strip, WPU101707,” and a structural job would name hot rolled bars, plate and structural shapes, WPU101704. Over the past year those two moved 36.9% and 15.0%, so the broad mill products index would overstate one and understate the other. State the base month, how often the price adjusts, and whether the calculation uses the first-published value or the value after revisions.
Ask a supplier what a sheet or plate quote is built on, the date of that price, and how many days it holds. CME Group lists hot rolled coil futures, and a supplier can tell you whether their price follows that or a mill’s published price.
On an imported steel article or derivative, ask whether the price includes the Section 232 duty and which annex and rate apply. A customs broker can check the classification, and a trade attorney can advise on a particular entry.

Caveats

Every value from June 2026 onward is preliminary, and BLS can revise each month for up to four months after it first appears.

The indexes are national averages of what U.S. mills and fabricators receive. They leave out the service center’s markup, cutting, freight and any surcharge on a particular order, and they cover domestic producers, so they do not price an imported product after duty.

The indexes are not seasonally adjusted, so the change on the year compares each month with the same month a year earlier.

Each index has its own base period, so a higher number on one index does not mean a higher price than on another. Comparing them shows how fast each moved.

Structural steel | Shark Metals

Steel mill prices rose 27.6% in the year to September 2026, the largest gain since May 2022

Sheet led the products

Fabricated structural metal set a record

The tariff behind the year

Revisions to July and August

What this means for a steel quote

Caveats