Aluminum mill shape prices fell for a third month in September 2026, 6.1% below June's record

Mon, 26 Oct 2026 10:36:36 -0400

The Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price index for aluminum mill shapes fell 0.1% in September 2026 to 370.480, its third monthly decline since a record of 394.359 in June. A producer price index tracks the prices U.S. producers receive for what they sell, here the shapes that U.S. aluminum mills ship. September’s reading is 6.1% below June and 25.2% above September 2025. BLS released the September figure on October 15, and it is preliminary.

The declines came after twelve monthly gains in a row, from July 2025 through June 2026. June’s reading was the highest since the series began in January 1947, and its 53.6% gain on the year was the largest in the series. September’s 25.2% is the smallest gain on the year since August 2025. Even after three declines, every month of 2026 sits above every month before it.

Aluminum mill shapes fell 6.1% from June's record by September 2026

Producer price indexes, aluminum mill shapes (WPU102501) and aluminum base scrap (WPU102302), both 1982=100, not seasonally adjusted, monthly since January 2019

Aluminum mill shapes
Aluminum base scrap

June through September 2026 are preliminary. Source: fred.stlouisfed.org

Aluminum base scrap, the scrap that mills, smelters and foundries buy, fell 3.7% in September to 448.098. That is 4.5% below its record of 469.261 in July and 22.6% above September 2025.

The mill shapes index fell 1.59% in July and 4.42% in August, then 0.12% in September. Over two years, from September 2024, it rose 57.6%.

Producer Price Index, aluminum mill shapes, the last 13 months. June through September 2026 are preliminary.
Month	Index (1982=100)	Change on month (%)	Change on year (%)
2025-09	295.898	1.59	25.8%
2025-10	301.541	1.91	26.3%
2025-11	311.964	3.46	27.5%
2025-12	320.588	2.76	30.0%
2026-01	328.673	2.52	33.1%
2026-02	349.365	6.30	40.0%
2026-03	353.170	1.09	34.8%
2026-04	367.769	4.13	37.9%
2026-05	385.055	4.70	49.8%
2026-06	394.359	2.42	53.6%
2026-07	388.092	-1.59	40.6%
2026-08	370.931	-4.42	27.4%
2026-09	370.480	-0.12	25.2%

Source: fred.stlouisfed.org

From scrap to finished parts

BLS publishes indexes along the chain from scrap to finished aluminum products. In September they moved in different directions.

Secondary aluminum ingot, the ingot and billet that smelters make by remelting scrap, rose 1.2% to 294.044. It was 46.5% above September 2025, the largest gain on the year of the six indexes here, and 0.8% below June.
Extruded aluminum shapes, which include rod, bar and wire, fell 1.4% to 248.675. That is 4.9% below June and 26.1% above a year earlier.
Aluminum castings rose 0.2% to 287.908, 3.7% above June and 15.0% above September 2025.
Aluminum cans and can components fell 2.0% to 190.564, about level with June and 11.6% above a year earlier.

Producer price indexes for aluminum scrap, ingot, mill shapes and products, September 2025, June 2026, August 2026 and September 2026. Each index has its own base period. 2026 values from June on are preliminary.
Index	Series	Base	September 2025	June 2026	August 2026	September 2026	Change on month (%)	Change since June (%)	Change on year (%)
Aluminum base scrap	WPU102302	1982=100	365.636	465.344	465.526	448.098	-3.7%	-3.7%	22.6%
Secondary aluminum ingot	PCU3313143313142	Dec 2003=100	200.758	296.466	290.528	294.044	1.2%	-0.8%	46.5%
Aluminum mill shapes	WPU102501	1982=100	295.898	394.359	370.931	370.480	-0.1%	-6.1%	25.2%
Extruded aluminum shapes	WPU10250162	Dec 2004=100	197.239	261.583	252.310	248.675	-1.4%	-4.9%	26.1%
Aluminum castings	WPU102802	1982=100	250.283	277.759	287.356	287.908	0.2%	3.7%	15.0%
Aluminum cans and can components	WPU10310331	Dec 2001=100	170.771	190.474	194.491	190.564	-2.0%	0.0%	11.6%

Source: api.bls.gov

Rebased to September 2024, secondary aluminum ingot rose 65.3% in two years, mill shapes 57.6% and aluminum base scrap 54.2%. The International Monetary Fund’s global aluminum price rose 33.6% over the same two years.

U.S. ingot and mill prices rose faster than the world aluminum price over two years

Producer price indexes and the IMF global aluminum price, rebased so that September 2024 = 100, not seasonally adjusted, monthly. Same scale on every panel.

Aluminum base scrap (Sep 2024=100)

Secondary aluminum ingot (Sep 2024=100)

Aluminum mill shapes (Sep 2024=100)

IMF price: International Monetary Fund, Primary Commodity Prices. Source: fred.stlouisfed.org

The world price

The International Monetary Fund’s Primary Commodity Prices put the global aluminum price at $3,283.05 per metric ton in September 2026, about $1.49 a pound. That is 1.0% above August and 23.7% above September 2025. The world price peaked earlier than the U.S. indexes. Its May average of $3,658.22 is the highest in the series on FRED, which starts in January 1992, and September stood 10.3% below it. The IMF figure is a monthly average of a world benchmark in U.S. dollars, so it shows what aluminum costs before U.S. duties and delivery premiums.

The global aluminum price peaked at $3,658 a metric ton in May 2026

Global price of aluminum, monthly average, U.S. dollars per metric ton, since January 2019

Source: International Monetary Fund, Primary Commodity Prices. Source: fred.stlouisfed.org

The tariff behind the year

Both months in the comparison on the year fall under a 50% tariff on imported aluminum. Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 lets the president adjust imports that threaten national security. Proclamation 10947 raised the Section 232 duty on aluminum articles and their derivatives from 25% to 50% for goods entered on or after June 4, 2025.

Proclamation 11021 changed the regime from April 6, 2026. It applies the duty to the full customs value of an imported product, regardless of metal content. Aluminum articles and the derivatives in its Annex I-A pay 50%, and the derivatives in Annex I-B pay 25%, with lower rates for some United Kingdom products and for derivatives made entirely with U.S. metal. Aluminum products of Russia, or made with primary aluminum smelted in Russia, stay at 200%. The proclamation reports that domestic aluminum capacity utilization rose from about 39% in 2017 to about 50.4%. The price indexes do not separate the effect of a duty from other causes.

Revisions to June through August

The October 15 release moved the mill shapes index for June, July and August by 0.02% or less. The scrap index moved more. August aluminum base scrap went from 475.545 to 465.526, down 2.11%, so the scrap record now belongs to July instead of August.

June through August 2026 index values as published before and after the October 15, 2026 release. All values are preliminary.
Index	Month	Before October 15	October 15 release	Revision (%)
Aluminum mill shapes	2026-06	394.292	394.359	0.02
Aluminum mill shapes	2026-07	388.048	388.092	0.01
Aluminum mill shapes	2026-08	370.902	370.931	0.01
Aluminum base scrap	2026-06	463.334	465.344	0.43
Aluminum base scrap	2026-07	469.848	469.261	-0.12
Aluminum base scrap	2026-08	475.545	465.526	-2.11

Source: alfred.stlouisfed.org

What this means for an aluminum quote

If a contract adjusts price by an index, name it by its full title and series code, such as “Producer Price Index for aluminum mill shapes, WPU102501,” or the extruded aluminum shapes index, WPU10250162, for work that is mostly extrusions. State the base month, how often the price adjusts, and whether the calculation uses the first-published value or the value after revisions. Check whether the clause adjusts in both directions. A June base month would now call for a price 6.1% lower on mill shapes.
Ask a supplier which aluminum price a quote for plate, sheet or extrusions is built on, whether it includes a regional delivery premium, the date of that price, and how many days the quote holds. Exchange prices for aluminum are published daily by the London Metal Exchange and CME Group, and a supplier can tell you which one their price follows.
On an imported part, ask whether the price includes the Section 232 duty, whether the part falls under Annex I-A or Annex I-B, and whether the supplier is claiming a lower rate for U.S. metal content. A customs broker can check the classification, and a trade attorney can advise on a particular entry.

Caveats

Every value from June 2026 onward is preliminary, and BLS can revise each of those months in later releases.

The indexes are national averages of what U.S. mills, smelters and scrap sellers receive. They leave out the service center’s markup, cutting, freight and any delivery premium or surcharge on a particular order, and they cover domestic producers, so they do not price an imported part after duty.

The indexes are not seasonally adjusted, so the change on the year compares each month with the same month a year earlier.

Each index has its own base period, so a higher number on one index does not mean a higher price than on another. Comparing them shows how fast each moved.

The IMF price is a monthly average of a world benchmark in U.S. dollars per metric ton. It does not include U.S. duties or the premium a buyer pays for delivery in the United States, so it does not price metal landed at a U.S. shop.